Welcome to the Polycrisis! / Blog

This blog is available in Dutch.

What the f*ck, is the response I am looking for when we do a little state of the planet report today. I want you to take it in, possibly cry and rage, and then I want you to take bold action.

Main point: we have exceeded six out of nine planetary boundaries. Furthermore, we can no longer talk of individual crises (climate, biodiversity, drinking water...), as they are connected. Welcome to the Polycrisis.

(Note, there are signs of hope too, see below)

The polycrisis in neat statistics

Yup, that's the stuff.

Warming

- The global mean surface temperature has warmed by 1.2 °C - the warmest since 100.000 years.

- In 2023 we've hit 1.5 °C warming as an annual mean temperature rise, with a likely permanent overshoot of the 1.5 °C limit in the next 5 years.

- In 2023, the ocean warmed suddenly and unexpectedly by 0.4 °C, to an extent that scientists do not understand. In 2024 this trend continued.

- Warming is accelerating, now at 0.26 °C per decade, meaning we will hit 2.0 °C warming in by 2040 and 3.0 °C by 2100 - both scenarios spell disaster on an almost unimaginable scale, including war. We are on the way to climate hell.

'Natural'Disasters in 2023

- Heatwaves of 40 °C or more threatened human life on all continents in 2023.

- Storms, such as Typhoon Saola in Hong Kong, Daniel in southern Europe, wreaked havoc

- Floods happening in 10 countries in just 12 days in September 2023.

- Droughts, everywhere.

- Wild fires, across the globe, including Greece, Tenerife, Scotland, North Africa, Kazachstan, Canada in all provinces, 55571 wildfires across the United States, Chile. Together causing 11.91 million hectares of forest destruction.

- All these have caused massive negative health impact though disease, for instance the rise in mosquito-borne disease (e.g. malaria, dengue) and non-communicable diseases (stroke, diabetes etc.),

Projections are that climate related disasters will cost 14.5 million lives, two billion healthy life years, an 38 000 000 000 000 USD per year in 2050.

All this is attributed by science to human caused climate change.

Summary of the Polycrisis: six of nine planetary boundaries have been crossed.

Johan Rockström explains the multiple interconnected tipping points in the climate system.

Non-climate

But wait, there is more:

- Freshwater: By 2025, an estimated 1.8 billion people will live in areas plagued by water scarcity, with two-thirds of the world's population living in water-stressed regions as a result of use, growth, and climate change. Major examples now include India and California.

- Soil degradation: Soil, the foundation of civilisation, and my personal obsession, is degraded on a massive scale by: e.g. intensive agriculture, erosion, deforestation, desertification, fire, pollution, eutrophication, and soil sealing. It is estimated that 60-70% of EU soils are unhealthy, with figures in the rest of the world unlikely to be much better.

- Ocean acidification: Between 1950 and 2020, the average acidity of the ocean surface fell from 8.15 to 8.05 (note pH is on a log-scale, a 0.1 decrease in pH means 26% more H⁺ ions) due to aerial CO₂induced carbonic acid production. This is disturbing marine live, and, together with rising ocean temperature, to coral bleaching. Coral is likely to be globally extinct by 2100.

- Species Extinction, Terrestrial biodiversity is decreasing rapidly as a result of human pressures, largely through habitat loss and degradation due to the conversion of natural habitats to land for agriculture and forestry. Close to 90% of the world’s marine fish stocks are fully exploited, over-exploited or depleted. One million of the world’s estimated 8 million species of plants and animals are threatened with extinction. Belowground, where 59% of all species live, we don't have good numbers of biodiversity loss.

- Rampant pollution: phosphorus, pesticides, plastics.... Use of the herbicide Glyphosate (e.g. Roundup) , perpetuated for another 10 years in the EU, causes cancer and Parkinson's disease. We have polluted ourselves: our brains and lungs , bladders , blood, our mothers milk.... our babies.

- Social-economic inequality: In rich countries wealth-to-income ratios have steadily increased. Worse, countries are diverging with respect to GDP per capita, which is a major driver of migration. Immigration and economic grievances have together contributed to the recent rise of the far right in Europe.

Okay, f*ck, I am angry now, how are you? If it is getting to much, scroll down quickly to the hope section.

GDP per capita 1960-2023. Source World Bank.

Interconnected tipping points

Science has identified 16 interconnected tipping points in the Earth climate system. They are mainly connected via the AMOC (Atlantic meridional overturning circulation), a major component of the ocean circulation. Analysis of these tipping points and their interconnections lead to dire conclusions:

- 5 tipping points set to tip at 1.5 °C warming. So in the next 5 years.

- 5 more are likely to tip within the Paris agreement targets' range. So until 2040.

- For instance, the Earth's natural ecosystems on land and in water are losing their capacity to take greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. The Amazon is no longer a CO2 sink, it has become a source of CO2. This will change things dramatically.

- Moreover, the tipping points are connected and are likely to domino the world into a global chaos.

Oh dear.